Movie earnings worldwide expected to fall: China is the only big place where movies are expected to do better next year.
After things started getting better from the pandemic, the global cinema box office is expected to go down again in 2024. This time, it’s because writers and actors went on strike in 2023, and it’s likely to hurt how much money theaters make.
Movie earnings worldwide expected to fall
According to the folks at Gower Street Analytics, the big screen’s global cash register is likely to ring up .4 billion in 2023. But hold on, 2024 might see a 5% drop, settling at .5 billion. That’s a 20% fall below the average of the pre-pandemic years from 2017 to 2019.
Gower Street’s crystal ball combines its Forecast Database, release schedules, and expert opinions. Dimitrios Mitsinikos, Gower Street’s CEO, clears the air, “The expected 5% drop in 2023 isn’t a sign of people losing interest in movies. It’s just because there weren’t as many movies available due to the hefty production time we lost.”
July 2023 set a box office record, proving people still love a good movie night. Rob Mitchell, Gower Street’s Director of Theatrical Insights, says the 2024 hiccup is mostly due to the strikes messing with the release calendar, pushing the return to pre-pandemic levels to 2025. More info about Movie earnings worldwide expected to fall in 2024 following Hollywood strikes.
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Gower Street predicts a bright 2025 for the global box office, promising good times in the second half of the decade. Hollywood’s home ground, North America, takes the biggest hit. The 2024 box office is expected to be 11% less than 2023, around billion—30% below the 2017-2019 average and just 7% more than 2022.
Internationally, excluding China, the 2024 box office might dip by 7% compared to 2023, hitting around .6 billion. Local films could give it a boost. Despite a 21% drop from the 2017-2019 average, it’s still 12% higher than 2022.
Gower Street’s regional breakdown for 2024 sees Europe, the Middle East & Africa ending at billion—23% less than the 2017-2019 average, 9% below 2023, and 13% above 2022. Asia Pacific, excluding China, is set to hit .2 billion—22% below the 2017-2019 average, 2% less than 2023, and 6% more than 2022.
Latin America’s 2024 projection is .4 billion—a 15% drop from the 2017-2019 average, 8% less than 2023, but a whopping 22% improvement over 2022. But here’s the plot twist: China, with its booming cinemas and less Hollywood dependence, is the only market expected to grow in 2024. Gower Street predicts a 5% boost, reaching .9 billion—almost neck and neck with North America.
Still, the uncertainty in China’s release calendar makes it a puzzle. Thomas Beranek, Gower Street’s Chief Analyst, says the international market weathers the Hollywood strike storm better than the domestic one. Less U.S. movies mean more room for local and international gems to shine—a trend we’ve seen since the pandemic shook things up in 2020.
